For some NBA players, it takes time to reach full potential. There are unexpected breakout players every season. For example, take Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins never turned into the player that many scouts expected him to be when he was drafted in 2014 by the Minnesota Timberwolves, culminating in a trade to the Golden State Warriors. … Continue reading Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in 2022-23
Decisions at the end of basketball games often decide the outcome. There are many difficult choices to be made with shot selection, pace, defensive style, and more. However, basketball teams and coaches may not be maximizing their win probability based on their choices. In this article, I will look at the win probabilities of 3 … Continue reading Foul up 3 or Defend?: Analyzing late game strategy
Outside shooting is more important now than ever in the NBA. The frequency of three point attempts has been increasing since the beginning of the 2010's. The simplest measure of 3-point ability is basic 3-point percentage, but this metric does not tell the whole story. It lacks too much context. A player can make 30 … Continue reading True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from Shot Circumstances
One of the most unfortunate things in sports are injuries. Teams and players have almost no control over this, and one wrong move can derail a team's season or a player's career. Take the Brooklyn Nets, for example. The Nets looked like they would be one of the NBA's top contenders, but an injury to … Continue reading The Cost of Injuries: Injury Adjusted Wins
The NBA commonly uses five positions to group players: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. However, today's NBA is becoming increasingly position-less. Instead, teams care more about the specific skills and tendencies of players when making lineups. This has led to the need to create new grouping for players. One way … Continue reading Generating NBA Archetypes Using K-Means Clustering
The Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and Heat has been a tightly contested series, with each game being unpredictable. In Game 7, the game that would decide which team faces the Warriors in the Finals, the Heat found themselves down just 2 points with less than 30 seconds left in the game. Marcus Smart … Continue reading Did Jimmy Butler Take the Right Shot?
The 76ers lost to the Miami Heat in 6 games in the Conference Semi-Finals, marking the fifth consecutive year that their playoff journey ends before the conference finals. While their core players of Joel Embiid and James Harden seem promising, smaller issues keep hurting their team. This year seemed like one of the 76ers' best … Continue reading What Went Wrong for the 76ers
The NBA Playoffs have begun and there are several teams that can win the championship. As of April 21, there are 6 teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the championship according to 538.com's NBA predictions. After years of shortcomings in the playoffs and a slow start to tis year's season, I think … Continue reading Why the Celtics Will Win the NBA Finals
The Final Four for 2022 is set: Kansas, Villanova, Duke, and North Carolina will have the chance to win the NCAA tournament. Kansas and Villanova play each other first on Saturday, followed by a historic Duke-North Carolina matchup for the rights to play in the national championship, which will take place on Monday, April 4. … Continue reading Final Four Preview: Which Teams Will Win?
The 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament begins tomorrow with the Round of 64 kicking off. This tournament will span 3 weeks, eliminate 63 teams, and crown one national champion after a season of hard work. Using my college basketball model, I have found some likely upsets, underrated and overrated teams, and the most likely final … Continue reading 2022 March Madness Preview: Upsets, Cinderellas, and Final Four Predictions