Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in 2022-23

For some NBA players, it takes time to reach full potential. There are unexpected breakout players every season. For example, take Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins never turned into the player that many scouts expected him to be when he was drafted in 2014 by the Minnesota Timberwolves, culminating in a trade to the Golden State Warriors. … Continue reading Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in 2022-23

Foul up 3 or Defend?: Analyzing late game strategy

Decisions at the end of basketball games often decide the outcome. There are many difficult choices to be made with shot selection, pace, defensive style, and more. However, basketball teams and coaches may not be maximizing their win probability based on their choices. In this article, I will look at the win probabilities of 3 … Continue reading Foul up 3 or Defend?: Analyzing late game strategy

True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from Shot Circumstances

Outside shooting is more important now than ever in the NBA. The frequency of three point attempts has been increasing since the beginning of the 2010's. The simplest measure of 3-point ability is basic 3-point percentage, but this metric does not tell the whole story. It lacks too much context. A player can make 30 … Continue reading True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from Shot Circumstances

Generating NBA Archetypes Using K-Means Clustering

The NBA commonly uses five positions to group players: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, and center. However, today's NBA is becoming increasingly position-less. Instead, teams care more about the specific skills and tendencies of players when making lineups. This has led to the need to create new grouping for players. One way … Continue reading Generating NBA Archetypes Using K-Means Clustering

Tracking Defensive Plus Minus: Ranking the NBA’s Best Defenders

Player defense has been one of the hardest elements to quantify in basketball since the rise of analytics. The box score stats for player defense are limited to steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds, with no context for the number of shots defended and how many turnovers a player actually forced. However, recent tracking statistics have … Continue reading Tracking Defensive Plus Minus: Ranking the NBA’s Best Defenders