What is the optimal NBA team—the one that would win the most regular-season games? At first glance, you might think it’s just a lineup of today’s top stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, the reality of salary caps and luxury tax aprons prevent stacking a roster with max contract superstars. And … Continue reading Optimal NBA Team with Genetic Algorithms
In the NBA, understanding a player's future potential is essential for general managers. Roster decisions affect not just the current season but also a team's trajectory for years to come. Overcommitting to players on the verge of decline can cripple a team, while signing a player before a breakout can provide a significant boost. In … Continue reading Mapping NBA Futures: Simulating Career Trajectories with WAR Projections
The NBA Draft is approaching, and teams will be scouting players for specific skills that fit their needs. Some critical skills in basketball include creating shots, spacing the floor, and holding up defensively. While traditional scouting methods are important in identifying talent, they are somewhat inefficient as it's not really possible to watch every second … Continue reading Predicting Future Performance: The Best Shot Creators, Shooters, and Defenders in the 2024 NBA Draft
The NBA Draft is an important time of the year for almost every team. Its a chance for teams to select their new face of the franchise and shape their future. Many of the high profile superstars were drafted to the teams they are on now. In fact, of the 15 players selected for an … Continue reading Projecting Future All-Stars in the 2024 NBA Draft
The bracket for the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has been released, and I have run 100,000 simulations of my college basketball ranking model to estimate the probabilities of each team advancing to each round. From this, some possible sleeper teams, upset picks, and title favorites can be examined. Modified Elo Rating System: ELASTIC Ratings … Continue reading 2024 March Madness Predictions: Which Teams are Over and Under-seeded
The NBA Playoffs are the biggest part of the NBA calendar. The playoffs are where legacies are made for players, coaches, and even entire franchises. Most NBA fans have an idea of what teams are best suited for the playoffs: teams with lots of star players and experience making deep runs in the playoffs. Interestingly, … Continue reading Predicting NBA Playoff Series: Does Experience Matter?
An unfortunate part of professional sports is injuries. Basketball is no exception to this, as injuries derail the seasons of players and teams every year. Since injuries are an unavoidable part of the NBA, it is useful to analyze them. More specifically, in this article I will be analyzing injury time (or time until recovery) … Continue reading A Survival Analysis of NBA Injuries
Defense is a difficult element of basketball to quantify. Traditional box score statistics like steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds are helpful, but they don't help fans understand which players are effective on-ball stoppers. After all, most steals and blocks are gotten while playing off-ball defense. Opponent shot tracking has helped to determine which players are … Continue reading Defensive Matchup Difficulty: Which NBA Players Face Off Against the Best?
Basketball is all about scoring more than your opponent, and the best way to do this is by getting better shots than your opponent. An crucial part to offensive efficiency is shot selection. Taking the right shots will improve the chance of making more baskets and winning games. The best shots can vary by team, … Continue reading Shot Selection: A Surprising Playoff Advantage (or Disadvantage)
For some NBA players, it takes time to reach full potential. There are unexpected breakout players every season. For example, take Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins never turned into the player that many scouts expected him to be when he was drafted in 2014 by the Minnesota Timberwolves, culminating in a trade to the Golden State Warriors. … Continue reading Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in 2022-23
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