What is the optimal NBA team—the one that would win the most regular-season games? At first glance, you might think it’s just a lineup of today’s top stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, the reality of salary caps and luxury tax aprons prevent stacking a roster with max contract superstars. And … Continue reading Optimal NBA Team with Genetic Algorithms
In the NBA, understanding a player's future potential is essential for general managers. Roster decisions affect not just the current season but also a team's trajectory for years to come. Overcommitting to players on the verge of decline can cripple a team, while signing a player before a breakout can provide a significant boost. In … Continue reading Mapping NBA Futures: Simulating Career Trajectories with WAR Projections
The NBA Playoffs are the biggest part of the NBA calendar. The playoffs are where legacies are made for players, coaches, and even entire franchises. Most NBA fans have an idea of what teams are best suited for the playoffs: teams with lots of star players and experience making deep runs in the playoffs. Interestingly, … Continue reading Predicting NBA Playoff Series: Does Experience Matter?
An unfortunate part of professional sports is injuries. Basketball is no exception to this, as injuries derail the seasons of players and teams every year. Since injuries are an unavoidable part of the NBA, it is useful to analyze them. More specifically, in this article I will be analyzing injury time (or time until recovery) … Continue reading A Survival Analysis of NBA Injuries
One of the reasons I enjoy watching basketball is because I like to see all the different ways teams try to get good shots. Some teams use lots of off-ball action and cuts combined with skillful passing, some teams put an emphasis on getting to the rim and kicking out, and others are more star-driven … Continue reading Offensive Clustering: Why the Warriors and Nuggets are Unique
Defense is a difficult element of basketball to quantify. Traditional box score statistics like steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds are helpful, but they don't help fans understand which players are effective on-ball stoppers. After all, most steals and blocks are gotten while playing off-ball defense. Opponent shot tracking has helped to determine which players are … Continue reading Defensive Matchup Difficulty: Which NBA Players Face Off Against the Best?
Basketball is all about scoring more than your opponent, and the best way to do this is by getting better shots than your opponent. An crucial part to offensive efficiency is shot selection. Taking the right shots will improve the chance of making more baskets and winning games. The best shots can vary by team, … Continue reading Shot Selection: A Surprising Playoff Advantage (or Disadvantage)
For some NBA players, it takes time to reach full potential. There are unexpected breakout players every season. For example, take Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins never turned into the player that many scouts expected him to be when he was drafted in 2014 by the Minnesota Timberwolves, culminating in a trade to the Golden State Warriors. … Continue reading Predicting NBA First-Time All-Stars in 2022-23
Decisions at the end of basketball games often decide the outcome. There are many difficult choices to be made with shot selection, pace, defensive style, and more. However, basketball teams and coaches may not be maximizing their win probability based on their choices. In this article, I will look at the win probabilities of 3 … Continue reading Foul up 3 or Defend?: Analyzing late game strategy
Outside shooting is more important now than ever in the NBA. The frequency of three point attempts has been increasing since the beginning of the 2010's. The simplest measure of 3-point ability is basic 3-point percentage, but this metric does not tell the whole story. It lacks too much context. A player can make 30 … Continue reading True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from Shot Circumstances
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