What is the optimal NBA team—the one that would win the most regular-season games? At first glance, you might think it’s just a lineup of today’s top stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, the reality of salary caps and luxury tax aprons prevent stacking a roster with max contract superstars. And … Continue reading Optimal NBA Team with Genetic Algorithms
In the NBA, understanding a player's future potential is essential for general managers. Roster decisions affect not just the current season but also a team's trajectory for years to come. Overcommitting to players on the verge of decline can cripple a team, while signing a player before a breakout can provide a significant boost. In … Continue reading Mapping NBA Futures: Simulating Career Trajectories with WAR Projections
The bracket for the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament has been released, and I have run 100,000 simulations of my college basketball ranking model to estimate the probabilities of each team advancing to each round. From this, some possible sleeper teams, upset picks, and title favorites can be examined. Modified Elo Rating System: ELASTIC Ratings … Continue reading 2024 March Madness Predictions: Which Teams are Over and Under-seeded
The NBA Playoffs are the biggest part of the NBA calendar. The playoffs are where legacies are made for players, coaches, and even entire franchises. Most NBA fans have an idea of what teams are best suited for the playoffs: teams with lots of star players and experience making deep runs in the playoffs. Interestingly, … Continue reading Predicting NBA Playoff Series: Does Experience Matter?
An unfortunate part of professional sports is injuries. Basketball is no exception to this, as injuries derail the seasons of players and teams every year. Since injuries are an unavoidable part of the NBA, it is useful to analyze them. More specifically, in this article I will be analyzing injury time (or time until recovery) … Continue reading A Survival Analysis of NBA Injuries
Defense is a difficult element of basketball to quantify. Traditional box score statistics like steals, blocks, and defensive rebounds are helpful, but they don't help fans understand which players are effective on-ball stoppers. After all, most steals and blocks are gotten while playing off-ball defense. Opponent shot tracking has helped to determine which players are … Continue reading Defensive Matchup Difficulty: Which NBA Players Face Off Against the Best?
Being named an All-American is one of the highest honors for a college basketball player. The players that are named All-Americans are considered to be the best 15 players by 4 major groups. These include the Associated Press, United States Basketball Writers Association, Sporting News, and the National Association of Basketball Coaches. Each of these … Continue reading Which College Basketball Players will be All-Americans?
Decisions at the end of basketball games often decide the outcome. There are many difficult choices to be made with shot selection, pace, defensive style, and more. However, basketball teams and coaches may not be maximizing their win probability based on their choices. In this article, I will look at the win probabilities of 3 … Continue reading Foul up 3 or Defend?: Analyzing late game strategy
Outside shooting is more important now than ever in the NBA. The frequency of three point attempts has been increasing since the beginning of the 2010's. The simplest measure of 3-point ability is basic 3-point percentage, but this metric does not tell the whole story. It lacks too much context. A player can make 30 … Continue reading True Shooting Ability: Separating Shooting Talent from Shot Circumstances
One of the most unfortunate things in sports are injuries. Teams and players have almost no control over this, and one wrong move can derail a team's season or a player's career. Take the Brooklyn Nets, for example. The Nets looked like they would be one of the NBA's top contenders, but an injury to … Continue reading The Cost of Injuries: Injury Adjusted Wins
Best Ball Stats 